AIを使って企業を破壊する方法【読書レビュー/The Coming Wave】


» The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and Greatest Dilemma




What we would really like to know is, can I give an Al an ambiguous, open-ended, complex goal that requires interpretation, judgment, creativity, decision-making, and acting across multiple domains, over an extended time period, and then see the Al accomplish that goal? Put simply, passing a Modern Turing Test would involve something like the following an Al being able to successfully act on the instruction "Go makes 1 million on Amazon in a few months with just as 100,000 investment." It might research the web to look at what's trend-ing, finding what's hot and what's not on Amazon Marketplace; generate a range of images and blueprints of possible products; send them to a drop-ship manufacturer it found on Alibaba; email back and forth to refine the requirements and agree on the contract; design a seller's list-ing, and continually update marketing materials and product designs based on buyer feedback. Aside from the legal requirements of registering as a business on the marketplace and getting a bank account, all of this seems to me eminently doable. I think it will be done with a few minor human interventions within the next year, and probably fully autonomously within three to five years.



Someone could soon create novel pathogens far more transmissible and lethal than anything found in nature. These synthetic pathogens could evade known countermeasures, spread asymptomatically, or have built-in resistance to treatments. If needed, someone could supplement homemade experiments with DNA ordered online and reassembled at home. The apocalypse, mail ordered.


AIの殺人兵器は「無人 × 自動照準」

There were no assassins on the ground that day. In the words of a New York Times investigation, this was a "debut test of a high-tech, computerized sharpshooter kitted out with artificial intelligence and multiple-camera eyes, operated via satellite and capable of firing 600 rounds a minute." Mounted on a strategically parked but innocuous looking pickup truck fitted with cameras, it was a kind of robot weapon assembled by Israeli agents. A human authorized the strike, but it was the Al that automatically adjusted the gun's aim. Just fifteen bullets were fired and one of the most high-profile and well guarded people in Iran was killed in under a minute.


Terrorists mount automatic weapons equipped with facial recognition to an autonomous drone swarm hundreds or thousands strong, each capable of quickly rebalancing from the weapon's recoil, firing short bursts, and moving on. These drones are unleashed on a major downtown with instructions to kill a specific profile. In busy rush hour these would operate with terrifying efficiency, following an optimized route around the city.



Now imagine robots equipped with facial recognition, DNA sequencing, and automatic weapons. Future robots may not take the form of scampering dogs. Miniaturized even further, they will be the size of a bird or a bee, armed with a small firearm or a vial of anthrax. They might soon be accessible to anyone who wants them. This is what bad actor empowerment looks like.



As the cybersecurity expert Bruce Schneier has pointed out, Als could digest the world's laws and regulations to find exploits, arbitraging legalities. Imagine a huge cache of documents from a company leaked. A legal Al might be able to parse this against multiple legal systems, figure out every possible infraction, and then hit that company with multiple crippling lawsuits around the world at the same time. Als could develop automated trading strategies designed to destroy competitors positions or create disinformation campaigns (more on this in the next section) engineering a run on a bank or a product boycott, enabling a competitor to swoop in and buy the company--or simply watch it collapse.




In 2021, a pharmaceutical company researcher near Philadelphia left smallpox vials in an unmarked, unsecured freezer. Luckily, they were found by someone cleaning the freezer. The person was lucky to be wearing a mask and gloves. Had it got out, the consequences would have been catastrophic. Before it was eradicated, smallpox killed an estimated 300 to 500 million people in the twentieth century alone, with a reproduction rate equivalent to more contagious strains of COVID-19, but with a mortality rate thirty times that of COVID.



Between 1975 and 2016, researchers cataloged at least seventy-one either deliberate or accidental exposures to highly infectious and toxic pathogens


コカイン取引を妨害する「AI × 虫」

Imagine activists wanting to stop the cocaine trade inventing a new bug that targets only coca plants as a way to replace aerial fumigation.



CRISPR-based systems with names like Carver and PAC-MAN promise effective prophylactic ways of fighting viruses that, unlike vaccines, don't trigger an immune response, helping protect us against pandemics of the future. Fields like RNA editing are themselves opening a range of new treatments for conditions like high cholesterol and cancer



It won't be long before "gene doping" becomes a live issue in sports, education, and professional life.



A meta-analysis published in the journal Nature reviewed the results of nearly five hundred studies, concluding there is a clear correlation between growing use of digital media and rising distrust in politics, populist movements, hate, and polarization. Correlation may not be causation, but this systematic review throws up "clear evidence of serious threats to democracy" coming from new technologies.



just as the costs of processing and broadcasting information plummeted in the consumer internet era, the cost of actually doing some. thing, taking action, projecting power, will plummet with the next wave. Knowing is great, but doing is much more impactful.



Instead of just consuming content, anyone can produce expert-quality video, image, and text content.



combined revenues of companies in Fortune's Global 500 are already at 44 percent of world GDP. Their total profits are larger than all but the top six countries annual GDPs. Companies already control the largest clusters of Al processors, the best models, the most advanced quantum computers, and the overwhelming majority of robotics capacity and IP. Unlike with rockets, satellites, and the internet, the frontier of this wave is found in corporations, not in government organizations or academic labs.



The world's top fifty cities have the lion's share of wealth and corporate power (45 percent of big company HQs; 21 percent of world GDP) despite having only 8 percent of the world's population. The top 10 percent of global firms take 80 percent of the total profits. Expect the coming wave to feed into this picture, producing ever-richer and more successful superstars whether regions, business sectors, companies, or research groups.



Foods, drugs, home products, indeed almost anything might be 3-D printed, or bio-produced, or made using atomically precise manufacturing close to or at the site of use, governed by sophisticated Als fluidly working with customers using natural language. You simply buy the execution code and let an Al or robot do the task or create the product. Yes, this glosses over a hideous mass of material complexity, and yes, it's a long way off. But squint into the distance, and this scenario is clearly plausible.


アメリカ vs 中国の戦争は既に始まった(チップ戦争)

Xi's fears came to pass on October 7, 2022. America declared war on China, attacking one of those choke points. This didn't involve missiles shooting over the Taiwan Strait. There wasn't a naval blockade of the South China Sea or marines storming the Fujian coastline. It came instead from an unlikely source: the Commerce Department. The shots fired were export controls on advanced semiconductors, the chips that underwrite computing and so artificial intelligence.)




Currently China and the United States are in a struggle to set technological standards. But a shared approach is a clear win-win; splintered standards make things harder for everyone.




※PS: ブログは「週1回」のペースで更新します。更新通知は「Twitter」と「メルマガ」でお知らせします🙋‍♂️